Introduction

This geopolitical and conflict-transformation blog has largely been focused on the Middle East, but it has now moved into a more global phase, with a new tranche of articles I've been writing recently for The Bangladesh Today International in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The most recent posts come first - look at previous posts on the right to see earlier entries. Or print out this page to read the most recent articles on paper.

Here's a quote from Alexander Solzhenitsyn:

Dwell on the past and you'll lose an eye. Forget the past and you'll lose both eyes.

Thanks for being here, and I hope you get something beneficial from these articles - Palden

Peace is Inevitable - Is-Pal in the longterm

An anonymous commentator has asked me why and how I believe peace is inevitable.

First, a comment on Anon's statement that conflict is constant. No it isn't - it's just that it is highlighted in the history books, and it is a very definitive event which makes a lot of noise and change, so conflict is naturally noticed, while the historic gaps between conflicts are passed over. So five years' war makes more noise in history than forty years' peace.

But here's the main point. War is a diversion from living life and working out our relationships by other means. The big issues of the 21st Century are connected with planetary survival, not with the petty interests of nations or even their voracious need for oil, uranium or water. If we carry on warring through this century, we've had it - we'll be overtaken by other issues much larger than tsunamis or hurricanes.

So we can either exercise a choice to end war - a pragmatic, not an idealistic choice. Or we can carry on and get overwhelmed by other things - some of which can be precipitated by war. Examples: global economic collapse, toxic and environmental crises, mass migration, nuclear assaults or accidents, and social and demographic atrocities so large that they can hit humanity's fundamental faith in living.

So my assumption is that peace is a realistic, economic, environmentally-friendly, diplomatic, socially-desirable, practical solution to war, and that humanity indeed is on the edge of a historic shift by achieving a fundamental peace, for totally sensible, even rather boring, statistical reasons!

The other alternative is that we all go down, leaving planet Earth in the good care of the other remaining species.

That's why I say peace is inevitable. It's just a matter of how long and how much it will take.

Thanks for your comment, Anon, and nice to meet you.